The Intruder Alarm / Perimeter Protection (IA/PP) business is a mature market that is dependent on the fortunes of two vertical markets, the industrial and public sectors. When it comes to investing in modernising the protection of these sites, only in the last few years have innovative new systems and products been introduced.

For this reason the IA/PP business growth rates have only been half that of Access Control and Video Surveillance and there has been a lack of initiative by some incumbent security vendors to work harder on demonstrating the value of more innovative IA/PP systems.

Some Video Surveillance manufacturers have seen the opportunity to take advantage. Axis Communications last year announced their Axis Perimeter Defender product, a video analytics application for intrusion detection. At the same time Radar technology has increased its penetration of perimeter security and advances in sensor technologies, microwave, active infrared, passive infrared, fiber optics and acoustic sensors are increasing their penetration of the market.

Congruous to this, radar technology also being used within smart buildings to support organisations as they explore options for moving staff safely back into their buildings. Solutions focus on the key elements of safety and security around COVID-19, including prevention, protection and response. Several companies including Infineon Technologies and Texas Instruments have been developing indoor radar technology for systems to fight COVID-19 through measuring room occupancy for social distancing and even monitoring the heartbeats and temperature of individuals for infection.

The world market for Intruder Alarm / Perimeter Protection products (IA/PP) reached $7Bn in 2019. In 2020 we estimate sales declined to $5.7Bn and forecast it will grow to $6.8Bn in 2025 at a CAGR of approximately 3.5%. IA/PP has become a much more important issue in critical infrastructures such as utilities, transportation, government and defense establishments because of the increasing number of threats, which could disrupt the operations of these infrastructures and also lead to huge losses across the whole economy.

More companies from the Access Control and Video Surveillance businesses are taking an active role in this industry offering new solutions and this will certainly bring about a more competitive business which will expand the market. IP systems remains a major market trend and with it Power over Ethernet (POE) is expected to become the standard communication system. These systems reduce the ducting and wiring requirements, reduce the install time, minimize connectivity errors, and therefore, overall costs.

The main driver for growth in the next 5 years will be the increase in investment in industrial complexes particularly in Asia and the BRIC countries. Advances in sensor and wireless technologies and new radar detection products together with integrating Video Surveillance, Access and outdoor lighting is strengthening this market.

Nevertheless, growth has marginally increased over the last 5 years and we expect that when the physical security business is "back to normal" it has the potential to deliver 5% growth. For western manufacturers it is a more stable market than the Video Surveillance business and at this time is not under threat from low-cost Chinese products.