Memoori’s 2019 Physical Security report shows that the market for Access Control products reached over $8Bn this year, a growth of 8.2%. We forecast that by 2024 the world market will be worth over $12Bn, a CAGR of 8.48%.

Demand has been driven by growth in IP Networking products, Access Control as a Service (ACaaS), Biometric Readers and Identity Access Management. Integration with other Physical security systems and Building Automation Systems (BAS) is now a common requirement. More recently there is a growing demand for Access Control systems to lead on Building Occupancy Management systems. The later has quickly become a complement to Access Control delivering valuable information on the location of staff and visitors and in the event of an emergency to rapidly clear the building.

There has been significant growth this year in ACaaS, probably as high as 20% and now very few doubt that it cannot perform a valuable service to end users of Access Control. All of the leading suppliers are bullish about the future and are now investing heavily in their cloud services and signing up third parties to deliver their software.

Access Control unlike Video Surveillance does not consume much broadband and there are no technical problems that stand in the way of ACaaS other than the preference of end users to own and house their own system on premise. Many that are about to replace old systems are investigating the economics of either finding the CAPEX to invest in a new one or pay a monthly fee for ACaaS. The latter is an increasingly attractive option.

Access Control is still a much smaller business than Video Surveillance and today is less competitive, and has not had to cope with the same price pressures from Chinese manufacturers. This may change, as 2 major Chinese manufacturers are now active in developing their access control business in western markets and could further change the competitive landscape.

The industry has in the past been reluctant to adopt more Open Standards, but within the last 2 years, some of the leading suppliers are becoming more open. We expect that industry development towards more openness will now gain momentum.

Further moves into IP Networking and integration with biometrics, identity management and building occupancy management systems, should maintain the growth momentum that has built up over the last few years but it will ultimately require some standard to be adopted. If manufactures prefer to continue to be insular and proprietary, it will not be good news for continued growth, as traditional proprietary systems mean limited options for customers and restricted possibilities for integration and scalability.

Winning new business in this global market is becoming more competitive and will require continual product development, which is absolutely essential in order to maintain growth. It is inevitable that as the market will gradually become more open, the heritage real estate business will loose much of its protection. New opportunities will also open up through IoT integrations, and this will require strategic alliances with other Smart Building companies.

We expect identity authentication to be an important factor in the growth of Access Control over the next 10 years; we are now entering a new stage of development where IoT will redefine the concept of identity and access management (IAM), because it will become an integral part of every IoT solution.
This will take access control out of its silo within the security department and pass to those that set and manage corporate network policy.

This year after only 6 months of trading some 5 Access Control and IAM Companies have been acquired. Access Control and Identity Management (IAM) has been very active in acquisitions in the last 3 years. In the long term integrating the 3 security branches (video surveillance, access control, intruder alarm / perimeter protection) may well bring about change in the routes to market for Access Control.