The meta-analysis of 30+ independent studies in our new report reveals the gap between vendor claims and verified reality, and why it matters for procurement decisions. The Realization Rate Problem The most robust dataset available comes from NYSERDA’s Real Time Energy Management (RTEM) program, the largest independently evaluated deployment of building AI performance to date. Across 654 sites and 57 vendors spanning approximately 223 million square feet, the results are unambiguous: vendor-reported savings were roughly double what independent measurement and verification confirmed. The realization rate, the ratio of verified savings to claimed savings, landed at 48% for electricity and 47% for gas. For every dollar of savings a vendor promises, independent auditors can confirm about half. This is not a fringe finding. Our analysis of over 40 studies, program evaluations, and vendor deployments across HVAC optimization, fault detection, lighting, and grid-interactive buildings shows portfolio-scale programs consistently delivering verified savings in the 3–15% range, well below […]