Security

Will COVID-19 Drive Physical Security Consolidation Through M&A?

Our world annual report on the Physical Security business has charted M&A activity since 2008. Over the last few months we have published a few articles analysing the various outcomes that COVID-19 has caused the business during the first quarter of 2020. In particular we have looked at areas of the business that by 2021 could come back to strong growth. In this article we take a look at the status of Merger & Acquisition (M&A) in 2019 and the changes that can be expected in 2020 / 2021 as a result of the problems caused by Covid-19. M&A data collected by Memoori over the last 18 years shows that the Physical Security industry, has gone through 4 cycles of growth and decline in the value of activity, sometimes exaggerated by a number of billion dollar deals in one year and occasionally deals carried out by businesses outside the physical security industry from the Defence, […]

Stay ahead of the pack

with the latest independent smart building research and thought leadership.

Have an account? Login

Subscribe Now for just $200 per year per user (just $17 USD per month) for Access to Quality Independent Smart Building Research & Analysis!

What Exactly Do you Get?

  • Access to Website Articles and Notes. Unlimited Access to the Library of over 1,700 Articles Spanning 10 Years.
  • 10% discount on ALL Memoori Research reports for Subscribers! So if you only buy ONE report you will get your subscription fee back!
  • Industry-leading Analysis Every Week, Direct to your Inbox.
  • AND Cancel at any time
Subscribe Now

Our world annual report on the Physical Security business has charted M&A activity since 2008. Over the last few months we have published a few articles analysing the various outcomes that COVID-19 has caused the business during the first quarter of 2020. In particular we have looked at areas of the business that by 2021 could come back to strong growth.

In this article we take a look at the status of Merger & Acquisition (M&A) in 2019 and the changes that can be expected in 2020 / 2021 as a result of the problems caused by Covid-19.

M&A data collected by Memoori over the last 18 years shows that the Physical Security industry, has gone through 4 cycles of growth and decline in the value of activity, sometimes exaggerated by a number of billion dollar deals in one year and occasionally deals carried out by businesses outside the physical security industry from the Defence, IT Communications and Private Equity businesses. The average annual value of Merger & Acquisition deals in the industry over the last 13 years is $6.7Bn USD, with the largest share being contributed by the Video Surveillance business.

In 2019 the value of M&A fell to $2.9bn a reduction of approximately 12% on the 2018 value, while analysis of the trends over the last 18 years showed that M&A measured by value has fallen significantly to levels not previously seen since between 2000 and 2003.

Competition has heightened and profit margins have fallen in some sectors of the Physical Security business in the last 3 years, but overall it has performed well when compared with industry in general. There remains plenty of scope for consolidation and the potential for business growth is high over the next 5 years despite the potentially short term major problem of COVID-19.

The structure of the industry is still very fragmented with hundreds of small companies finding it increasingly difficult to compete and it looks inevitable that the general trend line of value and volume of mergers and acquisitions will regain its momentum over the next 5 years but at a more modest growth by value of deals.

Over the last 18 years there has been a general upward trend in consolidation within the industry, which equates to a modest CAGR of 5%. However more recently there has been a lack of buyers from outside the business, particularly the Defence and IT Industries, whilst Private Equity retained a modest interest in the physical security industry in 2019.

So at the end of 2019 we had forecast a rise in the value of M&A activity and we believe that through 2020 and the first 6 months of 2021 the consequences of COVID-19 will give rise to a higher volume of acquisitions and a slightly higher value than we forecast in 2019.

It seems inevitable that COVID-19 will weaken the financial status of most companies particularly small to medium size ones which only account for 13.5% of the value of the physical security business but 90% by number. M&A offers a life line and theoretically a better future for these companies. Many small to medium companies could seek out opportunities to merge or be acquired.

Companies in the more attractive segments of the business such as ACaaS / VSaaS and AI Video Analytics will be sort after not just by buyers from within the Physical Security industry but also from outside the business including Private Equity companies.

The major western companies in the business have not in the last two years used M&A as part of their business strategy. Maybe COVID-19 will cause them to review it again and seek out opportunities causing a new cycle of investment.

Most Popular Articles

CXApp CXAI 2024
Smart Buildings

CXApp Workplace Experience Business and Financials Examined

In this Research Note, we examine the CXApp workplace experience business and 2023 financials, following the SPAC merger with KINS Technology in 2022 and subsequent events. Founded in 2015, CXApp is a workplace experience platform for enterprise customers in a work ‘from-anywhere’ world for employees, partners, customers, and visitors. Functionalities offered include employee engagement, desk […]

Witco Acquisition
Smart Buildings

Consolidation in the Workplace Experience Market as Witco Acquires SharingCloud

This Research Note examines what’s behind Witco’s latest move to acquire SharingCloud. We review the deal in the context of the startup’s development, funding, prior acquisitions, and strategy. Witco Profile Witco, a Parisian startup was founded in 2016 as MonBuilding, serving the French and Canadian enterprise market for workplace engagement apps. After raising 2 million […]

Axis Communications Financials 2023
Security

Axis Communications Video Surveillance Business & 2023 Financials Examined

In this Research Note, we examine the Axis Communications video surveillance business. This analysis is based on Canon’s 2023 Results Presentation 30 January 2024, Axis Communications 2023 Sustainability Report, 22 May 2024, and Memoori analysis. Founded in 1984 with headquarters in Lund, Sweden, Axis Communications offers products and services for video surveillance and analytics, access […]

Subscribe to the Newsletter & get all our Articles & Research Delivered Straight to your Inbox.

Please enter a valid email

Please enter your name

Please enter company name

By signing up you agree to our privacy policy